Monday, November 12, 2012

Odds of Financial Success

Most of us are not familiar with the odds of finance and it affects our outlook on financial matters.
 
Example: Flip 100 coins, heads or tails; there is a 75% chance of a streak of 6 or more straight guesses . And a 10% chance of a streak of 10 or more

Look what this does when we observe analysts and securities’ markets. You hear comments after market closings about events which really reflect randomness. But the comments attribute specific causes that occur only in the minds of the commentators. (See the Earl J. Weinreb NewsHole® comments and @BusinessNewshole tweets.)


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