Bank
analysts are never privy to inside banking operations. Example:
complicated derivative portfolio information, or “repo”
positions. In fact, they know so little of the plain-vanilla type; if they were, they could not understand the inherent
complexities.
Yet
every negative word analysts utter can doom the soundest financial
institution, to the point where that organization sinks towards
insolvency.
Rumors
are often circulated, fomented by bank analysts who
cannot possibly see a bank’s asset portfolio. That makes for
self-fulfilling events. Especially when bank holdings must then be
priced, "marked-to-market."
Fear-frenzy
takes hold as analysts persist in this self-fulfilling, bearish
sentiment.
There
was a time when bank stocks were bought on the basis of book value,
which can now be suspect, and dividends, which these days have been pressured by governmental regulation and oversight.
Then
the question arises of how secure is each bank’s capital, in our
fragile economy?
Another
reason why I believe in index funds, even for banking equities. (See
the Earl J. Weinreb NewsHole® comments and @BusinessNewshole
tweets.)
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