A few businesses have had
employees create a futures market on a subject of importance to
their company. They feel that certain points of view, though a
gamble, can be prescient, if the gamblers or speculators have no
inherent bias in their choices.
Future projections on
business concerns always are difficult to estimate. If any can be
predicted with more independent accuracy, they would be immensely
practical.
But caution is needed.
For such markets to have value, they must have lots of independent
input. Sampling should be efficient and unbiased.
I
find that is almost impractical in most business projections.
However, futures markets may have their place in foretelling
political outcomes and general marketing concepts.(See
the Earl J Weinreb NewsHole® comments and @BusinessNewshole tweets.)
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