Timing Securities Markets

Research consistently shows data that market timing does not work. Timers may make their money because of their inside positions, which entail profit, but these are factors other than market timing.

It has been recently shown how members of Congress have legally been able to do this. But inside trading is illegal for the public.

Poor timing applies to assets other than securities. Just one example of the futility of market timing: Some of the largest investment bankers and commercial banks invested very heavily in commercial real estate at their highs. Property values then fell in value in 2008. The bankers then sold at lows to private equity firms and hedge funds at bargain prices. The latter profited.

The reason? It is not only that the banks need the cash. The smart traders there tend to make money because of their inside positions, not because of their assumed timing instincts. ( See the Earl J Weinreb NewsHole® comments.)