Retirement planners use dubious assumed models. They take into account investments, forms of diversification, along with outlay plans and a number of probabilities. One may be Monte Carlo simulation, a well-known model used by investment advisers for this purpose.
But such investment planning fails to work for many reasons.
A major financial market meltdown is one. And other unforeseen events happen; illness, a job loss, business failure, unexpected educational expenses. The result of a lifetime of retirement planning is often failure.
The solution is to be realistic. Be prepared to work at least part-time past what you had originally thought would have been retirement age. ( See the Earl J. Weinreb NewsHole® comments.)
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